The pattern
Almost every IPO runs the same arc: a quick pop, a long fade, then a partial comeback for the lucky ones.
EVENT-ALIGNED MEDIAN JOURNEY · INDEXED TO 100 AT IPO
MEDIAN BY OUTCOME GROUP · ALL VS BEST / WORST QUARTILE
Why we warp the clock
Timing it is near impossible: every IPO processes the pattern on a different time scale.
HISTORICAL COHORT · MEDIAN ON THE CALENDAR
The lifecycle, measured
The pop is small and fleeting; the shakeout that follows gives back most of the run.
What predicts the outcome
A strong debut doesn’t prevent the fall. It buys the recovery.
BY DEBUT STRENGTH · POP + WEEK-ONE TRADING ATTENTION
Priced at the gate
The dip is universal. How deep it goes is priced at the gate.
BY VALUATION AT THE IPO · FIRST-CLOSE MARKET CAP ÷ PRE-IPO-YEAR REVENUE
The shape of outcomes
IPO returns aren’t a bell curve. They’re a lottery.
DISTRIBUTION OF 4-YEAR RETURNS · ALL IPOS · VS A NORMAL BELL CURVE
The full dataset
Every US IPO since 2004, sortable, including the delisted and bankrupt.
The pipeline
Next up: a wave of trillion-dollar names lining up to test the same pattern.
Where today’s IPOs sit
Where the recently-listed names sit against the historical curve.
The 180-day lockup
The lockup is a slow supply test, not the one-day cliff the folklore claims.
MEDIAN PATH AROUND LOCKUP EXPIRY · =100 AT EXPIRY
How big, and when
The typical IPO spends much of its first four years underwater.
HOW BIG (% vs the relevant anchor)
WHEN (trading days from IPO)
Read the median honestly
“IPOs lose money” is mostly the 2020–21 bubble.
MEDIAN 4-YEAR RETURN BY IPO YEAR · bar = median terminal, hover for detail
Direct listing vs traditional
Direct listings pop bigger and later, but the sample is too small to draw firm conclusions.
★ Bonus study · not in any number above
De-SPACs are far worse: a curated rogues’ gallery with a near-total-loss median.
DE-SPAC MEDIAN JOURNEY · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MERGER CLOSE
DE-SPAC VS TRADITIONAL IPO · MEDIAN METRICS
Enders Capital · enderscapital.com