Enders Capital · IPO Primer + Tracker

The IPO Primer + Tracker

The pattern

Almost every IPO runs the same arc: a quick pop, a long fade, then a partial comeback for the lucky ones.

EVENT-ALIGNED MEDIAN JOURNEY · INDEXED TO 100 AT IPO
MEDIAN BY OUTCOME GROUP · ALL VS BEST / WORST QUARTILE
Why we warp the clock

Timing it is near impossible: every IPO processes the pattern on a different time scale.

HISTORICAL COHORT · MEDIAN ON THE CALENDAR

The lifecycle, measured

The pop is small and fleeting; the shakeout that follows gives back most of the run.

What predicts the outcome

A strong debut doesn’t prevent the fall. It buys the recovery.

BY DEBUT STRENGTH · POP + WEEK-ONE TRADING ATTENTION

The exceptions

What about the top 5%? We call them pattern breakers and just like the rest, they don’t skip the shakeout. They take a shallow dip, then compound.

BREAKERS' MEDIAN JOURNEY · TOP 1% & 5% LOWEST-FIT VS ALL IPOS · INDEXED TO 100 AT IPO
THE MOST EXTREME, INDIVIDUALLY · LOWEST-FIT NAMES VS THE MEDIAN ARC
The shape of outcomes

IPO returns aren’t a bell curve. They’re a lottery.

DISTRIBUTION OF 4-YEAR RETURNS · ALL IPOS · VS A NORMAL BELL CURVE
The full dataset

Every US IPO since 2004, sortable, including the delisted and bankrupt.

The pipeline

Next up: a wave of trillion-dollar names lining up to test the same pattern.

Where today’s IPOs sit

Where the recently-listed names sit against the historical curve.

Stage estimate

The 180-day lockup

The lockup is a slow supply test, not the one-day cliff the folklore claims.

MEDIAN PATH AROUND LOCKUP EXPIRY · =100 AT EXPIRY

How big, and when

The typical IPO spends much of its first four years underwater.

HOW BIG (% vs the relevant anchor)
WHEN (trading days from IPO)
Read the median honestly

“IPOs lose money” is mostly the 2020–21 bubble.

MEDIAN 4-YEAR RETURN BY IPO YEAR · bar = median terminal, hover for detail
Direct listing vs traditional

Direct listings pop bigger and later, but the sample is too small to draw firm conclusions.

★ Bonus study · not in any number above

De-SPACs are far worse: a curated rogues’ gallery with a near-total-loss median.

DE-SPAC MEDIAN JOURNEY · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MERGER CLOSE
DE-SPAC VS TRADITIONAL IPO · MEDIAN METRICS

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